Words of Warcraft: Experimental evidence on state’s normative principle invocation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Abstract: How do states communicate with the public – especially foreign audiences – about ongoing geopolitical crises? And how does a state’s invocation of normative principles affect individual engagement and political opinions? During geopolitical crises – including outbreaks of interstate war – states can use social media to sway public opinion both domestically and abroad. These irregular informational tactics may affect major conflicts by influencing key domestic populations in third-party states. We assess the effectiveness of such informational campaigns by rival geopolitical powers in the context of the ongoing War in Ukraine. Using a novel survey experiment design with interactive mock social media posts – and motivated by our analysis of 2.1 million tweets collected directly before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – we show how rival geopolitical powers’ framing of the Ukraine crisis with normative principles affects political beliefs in Hungary. Pilot results (N = 620) suggest those least in favor of liberal democracy at home are most persuaded by Russia’s subversive use of norms, despite these principles being central tenets of the liberal democratic international order. Our project sheds light on how social media influence operations can take advantage of democratic disillusionment across borders, and affect strategic success in the digital age – especially where foreign policy is central to domestic election campaigns.

Recommended citation: Melissa Pavlik and Ryan Pike. (2024). Words of Warcraft: Experimental evidence on state’s normative principle invocation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Working Paper.